Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 07 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 74200 (+1959) 1258051 (+21064) 206203 (+6519) 977648 (+12586)
United Kingdom 30076 (+649) 201101 (+6111) 0 (+0) 171025 (+5462)
Italy 29684 (+369) 214457 (+1444) 93245 (+8014) 91528 (-6939)
Spain 25857 (+244) 253682 (+3121) 159359 (+4641) 68466 (-1764)
France 25809 (+278) 174191 (+3640) 53972 (+1236) 94410 (+2126)
Brazil 8536 (+615) 125218 (+10503) 51370 (+3149) 65312 (+6739)
Belgium 8339 (+323) 50781 (+272) 12731 (+290) 29711 (-341)
Germany 7275 (+282) 168162 (+1155) 137696 (+2596) 23191 (-1723)
Iran 6418 (+78) 101650 (+1680) 81587 (+1112) 13645 (+490)
Netherlands 5204 (+36) 41319 (+232) 0 (+0) 36115 (+196)
China 4633 (+0) 82883 (+2) 77911 (+58) 339 (-56)
Canada 4223 (+184) 63403 (+1365) 27816 (+878) 31364 (+303)
Turkey 3584 (+64) 131744 (+2253) 78202 (+4917) 49958 (-2728)
Sweden 2941 (+87) 23918 (+702) 4074 (+0) 16903 (+615)
Mexico 2507 (+236) 26025 (+1120) 16810 (+872) 6708 (+12)
Switzerland 1805 (+10) 30060 (+51) 25700 (+300) 2555 (-259)
India 1785 (+92) 52987 (+3587) 15331 (+1189) 35871 (+2306)
Ecuador 1618 (+49) 31881 (+0) 3433 (+0) 26830 (-49)
Russia 1537 (+86) 165929 (+10559) 21327 (+1462) 143065 (+9011)
Peru 1533 (+89) 54817 (+3628) 17527 (+2114) 35757 (+1425)
Ireland 1375 (+36) 22248 (+265) 17110 (+3724) 3763 (-3495)
Portugal 1089 (+15) 26182 (+480) 2076 (+333) 23017 (+132)
Indonesia 895 (+23) 12438 (+367) 2317 (+120) 9226 (+224)
Romania 864 (+23) 14107 (+270) 5788 (+334) 7455 (-87)
Poland 733 (+17) 14740 (+309) 4655 (+375) 9352 (-83)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 259494 (+6155) 3729826 (+89156) 1213559 (+52638)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 252863 ( +2577) 3587454 ( +37894) 1204957 ( +29787)
Fri 08 May 2020 255213 ( +2349) 3622494 ( +35040) 1233224 ( +28267)
Sat 09 May 2020 257351 ( +2138) 3654840 ( +32346) 1259953 ( +26729)
Sun 10 May 2020 259293 ( +1942) 3684651 ( +29811) 1285142 ( +25189)
Mon 11 May 2020 261054 ( +1761) 3712085 ( +27434) 1308803 ( +23661)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82883 (+2) 77911 (+58)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82967 ( +8) 77023 ( +1)
Fri 08 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82974 ( +7) 77024 ( +1)
Sat 09 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82980 ( +7) 77025 ( +1)
Sun 10 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82986 ( +6) 77026 ( +1)
Mon 11 May 2020 4633 ( +0) 82991 ( +5) 77027 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 25857 (+244) 253682 (+3121) 159359 (+4641)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 25785 ( +125) 254385 ( +1569) 156110 ( +738)
Fri 08 May 2020 25896 ( +111) 255797 ( +1412) 156619 ( +509)
Sat 09 May 2020 25995 ( +99) 257064 ( +1268) 156970 ( +350)
Sun 10 May 2020 26083 ( +88) 258199 ( +1135) 157210 ( +241)
Mon 11 May 2020 26161 ( +78) 259213 ( +1014) 157375 ( +165)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 29684 (+369) 214457 (+1444) 93245 (+8014)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 29566 ( +156) 214195 ( +1161) 91403 ( +2078)
Fri 08 May 2020 29707 ( +141) 215293 ( +1098) 93381 ( +1978)
Sat 09 May 2020 29835 ( +128) 216332 ( +1039) 95255 ( +1874)
Sun 10 May 2020 29950 ( +115) 217313 ( +982) 97023 ( +1769)
Mon 11 May 2020 30054 ( +104) 218241 ( +928) 98687 ( +1663)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 30076 (+649) 201101 (+6111) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 29874 ( +451) 192936 ( +2026) nan ( +nan)
Fri 08 May 2020 30287 ( +413) 194778 ( +1842) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 30663 ( +376) 196449 ( +1671) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 31006 ( +343) 197963 ( +1514) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 31317 ( +311) 199332 ( +1369) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 74200 (+1959) 1258051 (+21064) 206203 (+6519)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 71822 ( +727) 1273525 ( +19506) 210533 ( +7023)
Fri 08 May 2020 72464 ( +642) 1291425 ( +17900) 217082 ( +6548)
Sat 09 May 2020 73030 ( +566) 1307767 ( +16343) 223142 ( +6060)
Sun 10 May 2020 73528 ( +498) 1322619 ( +14852) 228710 ( +5568)
Mon 11 May 2020 73965 ( +437) 1336059 ( +13440) 233794 ( +5084)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 25809 (+278) 174191 (+3640) 53972 (+1236)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 25608 ( +118) 167795 ( +111) 53769 ( +577)
Fri 08 May 2020 25711 ( +104) 167888 ( +93) 54311 ( +543)
Sat 09 May 2020 25802 ( +91) 167967 ( +78) 54821 ( +510)
Sun 10 May 2020 25882 ( +80) 168033 ( +66) 55299 ( +479)
Mon 11 May 2020 25951 ( +70) 168089 ( +56) 55748 ( +449)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 7275 (+282) 168162 (+1155) 137696 (+2596)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 7260 ( +79) 167701 ( +483) 137432 ( +1586)
Fri 08 May 2020 7333 ( +73) 168130 ( +429) 138914 ( +1482)
Sat 09 May 2020 7401 ( +68) 168511 ( +381) 140296 ( +1383)
Sun 10 May 2020 7463 ( +63) 168849 ( +337) 141585 ( +1289)
Mon 11 May 2020 7521 ( +58) 169147 ( +298) 142786 ( +1200)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 5204 (+36) 41319 (+232) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 5226 ( +49) 41295 ( +173) nan ( +nan)
Fri 08 May 2020 5272 ( +46) 41449 ( +153) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 5315 ( +43) 41584 ( +135) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 5356 ( +41) 41703 ( +119) nan ( +nan)
Mon 11 May 2020 5394 ( +38) 41808 ( +105) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 8339 (+323) 50781 (+272) 12731 (+290)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 7970 ( +31) 50415 ( +219) 12772 ( +115)
Fri 08 May 2020 7997 ( +27) 50610 ( +195) 12874 ( +102)
Sat 09 May 2020 8020 ( +23) 50783 ( +173) 12964 ( +90)
Sun 10 May 2020 8039 ( +19) 50937 ( +154) 13043 ( +79)
Mon 11 May 2020 8056 ( +17) 51074 ( +137) 13113 ( +70)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 2941 (+87) 23918 (+702) 4074 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 2947 ( +46) 24329 ( +469) 4844 ( +786)
Fri 08 May 2020 2990 ( +43) 24786 ( +457) 5782 ( +938)
Sat 09 May 2020 3030 ( +40) 25230 ( +445) 6901 ( +1119)
Sun 10 May 2020 3067 ( +37) 25662 ( +432) 8236 ( +1336)
Mon 11 May 2020 3101 ( +34) 26082 ( +419) 9830 ( +1594)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 733 (+17) 14740 (+309) 4655 (+375)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 751 ( +15) 14707 ( +229) 4735 ( +177)
Fri 08 May 2020 766 ( +15) 14926 ( +219) 4896 ( +161)
Sat 09 May 2020 779 ( +14) 15136 ( +210) 5041 ( +145)
Sun 10 May 2020 792 ( +13) 15337 ( +201) 5171 ( +130)
Mon 11 May 2020 804 ( +12) 15529 ( +192) 5286 ( +115)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 1805 (+10) 30060 (+51) 25700 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 1812 ( +8) 29772 ( +26) 25349 ( +155)
Fri 08 May 2020 1819 ( +7) 29794 ( +23) 25484 ( +135)
Sat 09 May 2020 1825 ( +6) 29814 ( +20) 25601 ( +117)
Sun 10 May 2020 1831 ( +5) 29831 ( +17) 25702 ( +101)
Mon 11 May 2020 1835 ( +5) 29846 ( +15) 25790 ( +88)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 8536 (+615) 125218 (+10503) 51370 (+3149)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 8743 ( +377) 129733 ( +6726) 46084 ( +559)
Fri 08 May 2020 9097 ( +354) 136368 ( +6635) 46553 ( +469)
Sat 09 May 2020 9426 ( +329) 142855 ( +6487) 46946 ( +392)
Sun 10 May 2020 9729 ( +303) 149141 ( +6286) 47273 ( +327)
Mon 11 May 2020 10005 ( +276) 155182 ( +6041) 47545 ( +272)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 6418 (+78) 101650 (+1680) 81587 (+1112)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 07 May 2020 6342 ( +34) 101993 ( +950) 80931 ( +568)
Fri 08 May 2020 6373 ( +31) 102883 ( +890) 81444 ( +512)
Sat 09 May 2020 6401 ( +28) 103707 ( +825) 81905 ( +461)
Sun 10 May 2020 6427 ( +26) 104463 ( +756) 82320 ( +415)
Mon 11 May 2020 6451 ( +24) 105149 ( +686) 82693 ( +373)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.